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When will COVID-19 peak? A state-by-state analysis



Peak demand for hospital resources due to COVID-19 is expected by mid-April in the U.S., according to an analysis from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle. The study presents estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 for each state in the U.S. if social distancing measures are maintained. Researchers used state-level hospital capacity data, data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from the World Health Organization, and observed COVID-19 utilization from select locations. While peak demand for resources, namely hospital beds and ventilators, will occur at the national level in two weeks, this varies by state. About a third of states, including New York, are projected to hit peak capacity in the first half of April, but some states will see the most demand for hospital resources in May. Below is the projected date of peak hospital resource demand in each state according to the model, which uses data last updated April 1. April 8 New Jersey April 9 Louisiana Michigan New York Vermont April 11 Delaware Washington April 15 Alaska Connecticut District of Columbia April 16 Massachusetts April 17 Alabama Colorado Maine New Hampshire April 18 Pennsylvania April 19 Indiana Ohio Tennessee April 20 Illinois Nevada Rhode Island April 21 Mississippi North Dakota April 22 Minnesota April 23 Nebraska Oklahoma Utah April 24 Georgia New Mexico April 26 Arkansas California Idaho Montana North Carolina April 27 Arizona Wisconsin April 28

Kansas South Carolina April 29 Maryland May 1 Iowa May 3 Florida Hawaii May 4 South Dakota West Virginia Wyoming May 5 Oregon May 6 Texas May 16 Kentucky May 20 Virginia May 21 Missouri

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